COVID-19

We urgently need to rethink our economy. I don’t mean how big the stimulus package is going to be and if it is going to go to banks and big companies, or it will be in the form of a tax break for employers or employees, or if it will be unemployment compensation. We think these are the only possibilities because this is what we know. We need futurist, science-fiction type of thinking and we need it now because these types of measures are inadequate.

With COVID-19 affecting the entire world, it doesn’t matter if you are a Wall Street investment banker thriving in financial Darwinism or if you are a farmer or worker of the world uniting. Everyone is affected. Reopening the economy by mid April is delusional. The virus will not have taken its course and reopening the economy will fill the hospitals and graveyards beyond capacity, removing vital parts of the economy. Leaving people at home will keep vital parts of the economy out of action for a while but still available... except that employers still have to pay their bills and won’t be able to pay their employees.

The old system is broken. If the state pays companies in the amount that is needed, the state will go bankrupt and the employees will be in arrears in rent/mortgage, loans, and other bills. Companies will implement austerity measures meaning they probably will not hire as many employees as before. If the state pays individuals in the amount that is needed, the state will still go bankrupt and the companies will also go bankrupt, being unable to employee the people. 

The economy as we know it must transform. Whole sectors are going to undergo radical change. Bricks-and-mortar retail is going to face extinction whereas online retail is going to be stronger. Telecommuting has proven it is possible that in-office presence and the corresponding street-traffic commutes are not as necessary as we thought. But the necessary telecommunications infrastructure needs to improve.

When I was younger and read about the monetary debts of nations, I always naively wondered why the debts didn’t simply cancel each other out. To be honest, I still wonder why the debts don’t cancel each other out. When the curve of COVID-19 infections across the world are all finally downward in a few months, we will all be in debt: states, companies, employees. Yet everybody still wants their livelihood.  

I have no solutions. Economists, futurists, and governments need to get together to discuss how everybody can get back to work, everybody can keep their jobs, companies can keep producing goods and services. The whole concept of money and economy needs to be rethought.